CALIBRATION
· six-layer stack · service status · pipeline latencyCalibration & health
The six-layer stack that turns raw ensemble output into tradeable probabilities.
Six-layer calibration stack
7/7 layers active · pipeline transforms raw ensemble → tradeable probabilityemos champion
held· 12d old· 7KCalibration layer
Champion is gate-controlled — candidate runs daily at 03:00 UTC; if the new fit fails MAE/CRPS gates, the previous champion is held. Age > 24h here means the promotion gate rejected today's candidate, which is healthy behaviour, not staleness.
climatology
fresh· 16.0h old· 969KHistoric 30-year baseline for each city & hour
- built_at
- 2026-05-02T04:00:56.274395+00:00
- n_cities
- 50
ar1
expired· 5d old· 7KAutoregressive error correction across lead times
- built_at
- 2026-04-28T03:30:42.182426+00:00
- n_cities
- 47
source bias
fresh· 16.0h old· 42KPer-source residual correction — shrinks GFS/IFS/EC bias
- built_at
- 2026-05-02T04:00:55.661568+00:00
kyles lambda
held· 12d old· 6KCalibration layer
Depends on polymarket_historical/weather_trades.parquet, which is built by a separate ingestion run. Market-impact coefficients drift slowly; 30d+ is fine.
- built_at
- 2026-04-20T18:57:21.318335+00:00
- n_cities
- 36
wash trade
held· 12d old· 20KCalibration layer
Same ingestion dependency as kyles_lambda. Wash-volume ratios are persistent per-city; refresh cadence is measured in weeks, not hours.
- built_at
- 2026-04-20T18:59:10.747222+00:00
- n_markets
- 18325
bernstein quantiles
fresh· 16.0h old· 26KCalibration layer
- built_at
- 2026-05-02T04:01:32.944630+00:00
- n_cities
- 50