INTEL

· whale podium · archetype cohorts · race log

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08 · Competitor intel

Whale + archetype intel

Off-Overview parking for sections that watch other Polymarket traders. The bot is no longer a wallet-follower — these views are research-mode artefacts kept because a future strategy generation might need competitor-timing data. Quiet here, loud nowhere else.

per-trader detail · /dashboard/whales →

Best-in-class whales

Waiting on bootstrap pipeline

No whale results yet — run the bootstrap job.

Winner archetype breakdown

Weather specialists · 3122 wallets · evidence DB

$1949kaggregate open

FAN69%

$1341k1216 wallets · avg $1103Multi-bucket event-level hedging. Highest capital concentration.

multi 51%near 12%deep 21%

HYBRID13%

$246k249 wallets · avg $988Mixed-mechanic operators — no single dominant pattern.

multi 19%near 25%deep 27%

HORIZON8%

$165k398 wallets · avg $415Single near-certain buys ($0.85+) at observation lock.

multi 11%near 83%deep 2%

LANCE6%

$117k892 wallets · avg $132Mid-market directional buyers ($0.20-$0.65).

multi 11%near 8%deep 17%

THUNDER4%

$79k367 wallets · avg $216Deep-longshot YES sellers ($0.02-$0.08 asks).

multi 14%near 3%deep 68%

Top 15 weather compounders (open portfolio ≥ $1k)

HYBRID0xe738…df65116 events

$169,775

FAN0x6ebc…4a5c231 events

$139,872

FAN0xf915…872021 events

$108,668

FAN0x2e48…95c783 events

$76,191

FAN0x9977…302015 events

$51,473

THUNDER0x594e…1c11496 events

$48,223

FAN0x99e1…65c85 events

$44,920

FAN0x7bff…7cd686 events

$38,815

FAN0xeb1d…59b0325 events

$33,516

FAN0xd83c…798c44 events

$27,407

FAN0x8bbc…1d9e323 events

$23,869

LANCE0xdf40…38b8439 events

$22,968

FAN0xe5bd…339a155 events

$18,505

FAN0xe196…0ab5234 events

$18,062

FAN0xbc84…a0d2216 events

$17,847

FAN0xa912…297f129 events

$17,729

FAN0xd280…82b326 events

$17,484

HYBRID0x3d9e…542135 events

$17,320

FAN0xec86…60e4218 events

$17,104

FAN0x1041…f452151 events

$16,398

FAN0x8d09…143f41 events

$15,688

FAN0x5637…21f475 events

$15,465

FAN0x7726…4aee17 events

$12,625

FAN0xd934…60a0106 events

$12,446

FAN0x71b5…d06711 events

$11,250

FAN0x43cb…84df95 events

$11,000

FAN0x8817…cda872 events

$10,928

FAN0x5f21…b376391 events

$10,821

LANCE0x6dce…449051 events

$10,635

FAN0x8adf…48cd45 events

$10,561

LANCE0x1c26…6e31389 events

$10,406

THUNDER0x1cdd…e595430 events

$9,860

FAN0xe3c3…ac62110 events

$9,838

FAN0xd255…3c5024 events

$9,444

FAN0x6a8d…50f9612 events

$9,330

FAN0xf963…55e4125 events

$9,318

FAN0x28ab…2048356 events

$9,190

FAN0x6aa2…05fb8 events

$9,007

FAN0xea25…885f13 events

$9,000

FAN0xbc4e…7dbb117 events

$8,645

FAN0xac16…4f4444 events

$8,475

HORIZON0x05ed…bf709 events

$8,292

FAN0xf787…1b6313 events

$8,087

FAN0xe47c…642a41 events

$8,065

FAN0xa98a…a5a8454 events

$8,025

FAN0x9177…04917 events

$7,970

LANCE0x0a19…3c9559 events

$7,888

FAN0x044f…d1f1141 events

$7,660

HORIZON0xb905…164029 events

$7,633

HORIZON0xb71c…97ef110 events

$7,404

Loading archetype breakdown…

Race log · vs tier-1 whales

Head-to-head · last 7d · shared markets only

Beat whales first1368/277449% of shared markets

Median lead when first463mbefore the first whale

Resolved P&L on shared markets+$61.231438/2772 resolved · WR 52%


−55.3h	london	24-25	YES	FORGE	05:06 $0.320	12:24 $0.510	1	+$3.09
−55.3h	london	24-25	NO	FORGE	05:06 $0.650	12:24 $0.510	1	$-3.05
−53.4h	london	22-23	YES	FORGE	08:23 $0.150	13:48 $0.777	1	+$3.05
−53.4h	london	22-23	NO	FORGE	08:23 $0.830	13:48 $0.777	1	$-3.03
−53.1h	austin	90-91	NO	PYTHIA·A	20:01 $0.850	01:10 $0.999	1	$-1.72
−52.5h	london	21-22	YES	FORGE	08:23 $0.210	12:53 $0.999	1	+$3.40
−52.5h	london	21-22	NO	FORGE	08:23 $0.690	12:53 $0.999	1	$-3.05
−51.6h	lagos	-999-28	YES	FORGE	08:12 $0.020	11:45 $0.999	1	+$3.03
−51.6h	lagos	-999-28	NO	FORGE	08:12 $0.969	11:45 $0.999	1	$-3.00
−51.2h	kuala-lumpur	37-38	YES	FORGE	04:31 $0.010	07:40 $0.008	1	+$3.12
−51.2h	kuala-lumpur	37-38	NO	FORGE	04:31 $0.950	07:40 $0.008	1	$-3.01
−49.7h	tel-aviv	24-25	YES	FORGE	11:15 $0.220	12:54 $0.100	1	+$3.09
−49.7h	tel-aviv	24-25	NO	FORGE	11:15 $0.750	12:54 $0.100	1	$-3.04
−49.5h	tel-aviv	24-25	YES	FORGE	11:22 $0.220	12:54 $0.100	1	+$3.09
−49.5h	tel-aviv	24-25	NO	FORGE	11:22 $0.750	12:54 $0.100	1	$-3.04
−49.5h	atlanta	76-77	NO	LANCE	20:13 $0.745	21:43 $0.014	1	+$0.38
−48.9h	nyc	56-57	YES	FORGE	12:57 $0.140	13:51 $0.999	1	+$3.05
−48.9h	nyc	56-57	NO	FORGE	12:57 $0.840	13:51 $0.999	1	$-3.02
−48.8h	milan	23-24	YES	FAN	14:09 $0.260	14:55 $0.999	1	$-10.64
−47.3h	nyc	48-49	YES	FORGE	05:29 $0.210	04:49 $0.013	1	+$4.04
−47.3h	nyc	48-49	NO	FORGE	05:29 $0.580	04:49 $0.013	1	$-3.06
−46.6h	los-angeles	66-67	YES	FORGE	20:17 $0.020	18:54 $0.999	1	+$3.06
−46.6h	los-angeles	66-67	NO	FORGE	20:17 $0.960	18:54 $0.999	1	$-3.01
−44.8h	london	19-20	YES	FAN	15:01 $0.087	11:50 $0.999	1	$-11.34
−44.8h	london	20-21	YES	FAN	15:01 $0.180	11:50 $0.999	1	$-8.66
−44.6h	miami	80-81	YES	FORGE	20:18 $0.030	16:54 $0.999	1	+$3.03
−44.6h	miami	80-81	NO	FORGE	20:18 $0.960	16:54 $0.999	1	$-3.01
−44.5h	cape-town	18-19	YES	FORGE	13:13 $0.170	09:45 $0.990	2	+$3.48
−44.5h	cape-town	18-19	NO	FORGE	13:13 $0.710	09:45 $0.990	2	$-3.04
−44.5h	atlanta	78-79	YES	FORGE	00:30 $0.160	21:01 $0.020	1	+$3.05
−44.5h	atlanta	78-79	NO	FORGE	00:30 $0.820	21:01 $0.020	1	$-3.03
−44.4h	cape-town	18-19	YES	FORGE	13:18 $0.170	09:45 $0.990	2	+$3.53
−44.4h	cape-town	18-19	NO	FORGE	13:18 $0.700	09:45 $0.990	2	$-3.04
−43.3h	munich	16-17	NO	THUNDER	17:03 $0.853	12:23 $0.999	2	+$5.55
−43.2h	denver	≥58	YES	FORGE	00:57 $0.280	20:09 $0.999	1	+$3.26
−43.2h	denver	≥58	NO	FORGE	00:57 $0.653	20:09 $0.999	1	$-3.05
−42.5h	los-angeles	66-67	YES	FORGE	00:21 $0.120	18:54 $0.999	1	+$3.09
−42.5h	los-angeles	66-67	NO	FORGE	00:21 $0.850	18:54 $0.999	1	$-3.02
−42.4h	atlanta	74-75	YES	FORGE	23:19 $0.080	17:44 $0.899	2	+$3.05
−42.4h	atlanta	74-75	NO	FORGE	23:19 $0.900	17:44 $0.899	2	$-3.02
−42.3h	denver	48-49	YES	FORGE	21:43 $0.010	16:04 $0.999	1	+$3.03
−42.3h	denver	48-49	NO	FORGE	21:43 $0.981	16:04 $0.999	1	$-3.00
−41.4h	amsterdam	17-18	NO	THUNDER	21:00 $0.873	14:27 $0.999	1	+$1.31
−40.8h	amsterdam	17-18	YES	FORGE	02:39 $0.420	19:29 $0.999	1	+$3.21
−40.8h	amsterdam	17-18	NO	FORGE	02:39 $0.530	19:29 $0.999	1	$-3.07
−40.8h	san-francisco	64-65	YES	FORGE	00:27 $0.150	17:16 $0.860	1	+$3.12
−40.8h	san-francisco	64-65	NO	FORGE	00:27 $0.810	17:16 $0.860	1	$-3.03
−40.8h	amsterdam	17-18	YES	FORGE	02:43 $0.420	19:29 $0.999	1	+$3.21
−40.8h	amsterdam	17-18	NO	FORGE	02:43 $0.530	19:29 $0.999	1	$-3.07
−40.7h	san-francisco	64-65	YES	FORGE	00:34 $0.150	17:16 $0.860	1	+$3.12

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