03

PROPHECY

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deep-dive · PROPHECY · gate-removal A/B + 3 net-new archetypes · branded 2026-04-24back to overview

Prophecy · gate-removal A/B + wallet autopsy

paper mode · master kill switch: WB_PROPHECY_MASTER_ENABLE

live P&L+$1,328.26across archetypes
archetypes6/8firing
bets opened80268022 resolved
bankroll cap$2,500vs Oracle/Zeus $1,500 ea
serviceactiveactive

group A · unleashed clones (gate-removal A/B)

same scoring code as Oracle counterpart · fires where gate blocks
PYTHIA-U · Q· group A
Pythia Q with NO gate

Same as oracle_pythia_quality but fires only in 0-2h or >72h bands (gate-blocked complement)

Evidence

Empirical: Pythia 0-2h band 70.5% WR (n=44) vs 12-72h 57.2% WR — gate may hurt

Live hit

60.8%

n=199

Live P&L

+$124

no edge detected

$20/bet × 20 conc · 1/8-Kelly per /quant-risk regime-shift safetydefault · $20/bet
PYTHIA-U · A· group A
Pythia A with NO gate

Same as oracle_pythia_aggressive but in gate-blocked complement

Evidence

Inherits Pythia A OOS 91.7% (n=229, +$0.20/$1)

Live hit

77.2%

n=206

Live P&L

+$34.33

no edge detected

$5/bet × 20 conc · canary inherits Oracle 75% thresholddefault · $5/bet
CASSANDRA-U· group A
Cassandra with NO gate

Same as oracle_cassandra but in gate-blocked complement

Evidence

Inherits OOS 75.9% (n=29, +$0.425/$1)

Live hit

n=0

Live P&L

$0.00

warming

$10/bet × 3 conc · variance-aware rampdefault · $10/bet
SIBYL-U· group A
Sibyl with NO gate

BUY NO at 1-3¢ when p_mkt ≥ 0.95, no gate; same toxic-station skip

Evidence

Inherits Sibyl backtest 96% WR · MARGINAL fee survival

Live hit

0.0%

n=4

Live P&L

−$19.97

insufficient n

$5/bet × 10 conc · stop −$25default · $5/bet
ARTEMIS-U· group A
Artemis restored to native -12h to +72h window

BUY YES at 1-5¢; uses include_post_end_hours=12 to recover docstring intent

Evidence

DISABLED 2026-04-24 · ColdMath misclone (clones LOSING leg only)

Live hit

0.0%

n=43

Live P&L

−$43.00

significant negative (fix or kill)

WB_PROPHECY_ARTEMIS_ENABLE=falsedefault · $1/bet

group B · net-new archetypes

mechanisms surfaced from 43-wallet autopsy · pre-reg locked
HINDSIGHT· group B
POST_END_PARITY_NO grinder

BUY NO at ≥95¢ POST end_date when temp observation has locked (5h buffer)

Evidence

4 witnesses · 99.84-99.93% WR on $147k+ · NoonienSoong accelerating 2.68× in 2026

Live hit

99.5%

n=186

Live P&L

+$3.80

no edge detected

$5/bet × 50 conc · canary at 85% rolling-50 · stop −$125default · $5/bet
ECHO· group B
Mid-band BUY YES (Pythia mirror)

BUY YES at p_mkt ∈ [0.15, 0.45] when p_pred − p_mkt ≥ 0.20 · standard Oracle window

Evidence

1 witness (HC2 +$1.13/$1 on n=364) · single-witness flag

Live hit

n=0

Live P&L

$0.00

warming

$9.38/bet × 2 conc · eighth-Kelly per /quant-risk single-witness verdictdefault · $9.38/bet
FORGE· group B
Paper-mode merge-arb (Phase 2)

BUY YES + BUY NO same conditionId when sum < $1, simulate merge to $1 face

Evidence

3 independent witnesses (Poligarch + neobrother + Lavincey)

Live hit

50.0%

n=7384

Live P&L

+$1,230

significant positive

$3/leg × 50 pairs · paper-only · live merge calls deferreddefault · $3/leg ($6/cycle)

about this generation

Why a separate generation? Two reasons.

  1. Preserve Oracle paper trial integrity. Oracle is locked under current rules through the 2026-04-30 review. Any change to Oracle archetypes contaminates that review.
  2. Test the gate-removal hypothesis. Empirical evidence (Pythia 0-2h band 70.5% WR vs 12-72h 57.2% WR) suggests the gate is hurting Oracle. Group A clones run alongside Oracle, both feeding paper-mode data, for direct A/B at 04-30.

Master kill: WB_PROPHECY_MASTER_ENABLE=false in .env disables ALL Prophecy scanners regardless of per-archetype flags.

See docs/strategies/prophecy/PROPHECY.md + per-archetype docs (HINDSIGHT.md, ECHO.md, FORGE.md, UNLEASHED_CLONES.md).