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Market inspector · nyc · 2026-05-04
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on May 4?
μ blend66.25F240 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend2.66combined uncertainty
source spread±5.39Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±1.2hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 66.251F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
31 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 31 snapshots; drift from 69.3F to 69.8F (+0.6F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤43Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 43forbelow0.0%0.8%-0.8pp≤61Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 61forbelow2.4%0.4%+2.0pp44Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 44 45f0.0%2.0%-2.0pp46Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 46 47f0.0%8.0%-8.0pp48Fyoulowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 48 49f0.0%46.0%-46.0pp50Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 50 51f0.0%33.0%-33.0pp52Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 52 53f0.0%11.0%-11.0pp54Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 54 55f0.0%7.0%-7.0pp56Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 56 57f0.0%4.9%-4.9pp58Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 58 59f0.2%1.0%-0.8pp60Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 60 61f1.5%1.0%+0.5pp≥62Flowest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 62forhigher94.5%0.6%+93.9pp62Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 62 63f5.6%0.6%+5.0pp64Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 64 65f12.0%3.0%+9.0pp66Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 66 67f14.8%10.0%+4.9pp68Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 68 69f10.5%24.0%-13.5pp70Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 70 71f4.2%38.0%-33.8pp72Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 72 73f1.0%20.0%-19.0pp74Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 74 75f0.1%11.0%-10.9pp76Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 76 77f0.0%2.7%-2.7pp78Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 78 79f0.0%1.0%-1.0pp≥80Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 4 2026 80forhigher0.0%0.6%-0.6pp