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Market inspector · sao-paulo · 2026-04-30
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
70 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 70 snapshots; drift from 27.1C to 26.4C (-0.7C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤23Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 23corbelow—0.9%—24Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 24c—1.4%—25Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 25c—7.3%—26Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 26c—23.0%—27Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 27c—35.0%—28Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 28c—32.0%—29Cyouhighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 29c—4.0%—30Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 30c—1.8%—31Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 31c—0.9%—32Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 32c—0.6%—≥33Chighest temperature in sao paulo on april 30 2026 33corhigher—0.5%—