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Market inspector · chengdu · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
96 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 96 snapshots; drift from 20.1C to 18.0C (-2.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤12Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 12corbelow—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 13c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 15c—0.1%—16Cyouhighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 20c—98.7%—21Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 21c—2.9%—≥22Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 1 2026 22corhigher—0.5%—