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Market inspector · nyc · 2026-05-02
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on May 2?
μ blend59.69F112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.98combined uncertainty
source spread±2.67Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±3.4hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 59.693F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 61.0F to 60.4F (-0.6F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤51Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 51forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≤39Fyoulowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 39forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp40Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 40 41f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp42Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 42 43f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp44Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 44 45f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp46Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 46 47f0.0%0.9%-0.9pp48Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 48 49f0.0%2.0%-2.0pp50Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 50 51f0.0%0.5%-0.5pp52Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 52 53f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp52Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 52 53f0.0%94.0%-94.0pp54Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 54 55f0.7%0.1%+0.6pp54Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 54 55f0.7%0.1%+0.6pp56Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 56 57f5.6%2.0%+3.6pp56Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 56 57f5.6%0.1%+5.5pp58Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 58 59f16.7%34.0%-17.3pp≥58Flowest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 58forhigher80.4%0.1%+80.3pp60Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 60 61f18.4%40.0%-21.6pp62Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 62 63f7.4%29.7%-22.3pp64Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 64 65f1.1%2.8%-1.7pp66Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 66 67f0.1%0.7%-0.6pp68Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 68 69f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp≥70Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 2 2026 70forhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp