00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:58CEST
live
Market inspector · warsaw · 2026-04-26
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
55 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 55 snapshots; drift from 13.1C to 13.0C (-0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤4Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 4corbelow—0.1%—5Cyouhighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 5c—0.1%—6Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 6c—0.1%—7Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 7c—0.1%—8Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 8c—0.1%—9Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 9c—19.9%—10Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 10c—50.0%—11Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 11c—26.0%—12Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 12c—2.9%—13Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 13c—1.4%—≥14Chighest temperature in warsaw on april 26 2026 14corhigher—0.4%—