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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-04-24
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on April 24?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤16Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 16corbelow—0.7%—≤18Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 18corbelow—0.1%—17Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 17c—1.4%—18Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 18c—9.0%—19Cyoulowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 19c—93.0%—19Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 19c—0.1%—20Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 20c—0.4%—20Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 20c—0.1%—21Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 21c—0.5%—21Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 21c—0.2%—22Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 22c—0.2%—22Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 22c—0.2%—23Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 23c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 23c—99.5%—24Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 24c—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 24c—0.6%—25Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 25c—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 25c—0.2%—≥26Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 26corhigher—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 26c—0.2%—27Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 27c—0.2%—≥28Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 24 2026 28corhigher—0.4%—