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Market inspector · milan · 2026-04-30
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
70 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 70 snapshots; drift from 16.8C to 17.6C (+0.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤11Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 11corbelow—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 12c—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 13c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 15c—0.4%—16Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 16c—0.2%—17Cyouhighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 17c—2.0%—18Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 18c—23.0%—19Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 19c—54.0%—20Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 20c—26.0%—≥21Chighest temperature in milan on april 30 2026 21corhigher—6.5%—