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Market inspector · tel-aviv · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 4?
μ blend19.11C188 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.89combined uncertainty
source spread±1.46Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 19.115C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
32 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 32 snapshots; drift from 19.3C to 19.3C (-0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤15Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 15corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp16Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 16c0.8%0.4%+0.4pp17Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 17c9.5%0.6%+8.9pp18Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 18c34.4%1.3%+33.1pp19Cyouhighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 19c39.3%8.0%+31.3pp20Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 20c14.2%28.0%-13.8pp21Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 21c1.6%44.0%-42.4pp22Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 22c0.1%27.0%-26.9pp23Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 23c0.0%8.0%-8.0pp24Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 24c0.0%2.0%-2.0pp≥25Chighest temperature in tel aviv on may 4 2026 25corhigher0.0%1.0%-1.0pp