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Market inspector · austin · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on May 3?
μ blend77.55F272 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend2.29combined uncertainty
source spread±2.38Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±0.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 77.552F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
70 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 70 snapshots; drift from 77.0F to 77.6F (+0.5F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤57Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 57forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp58Fyouhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 58 59f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp60Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 60 61f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp62Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 62 63f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp64Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 64 65f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp66Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 66 67f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp68Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 68 69f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp70Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 70 71f0.2%0.6%-0.4pp72Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 72 73f1.6%1.3%+0.3pp74Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 74 75f7.2%3.9%+3.3pp≥76Fhighest temperature in austin on may 3 2026 76forhigher75.1%94.9%-19.8pp