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Market inspector · nyc · 2026-04-23
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 23?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤39Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 39forbelow—0.1%—≤61Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 61forbelow—0.2%—40Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 40 41f—0.1%—42Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 42 43f—0.3%—44Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 44 45f—25.0%—46Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 46 47f—84.0%—48Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 48 49f—0.1%—50Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 50 51f—0.1%—52Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 52 53f—0.1%—54Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 54 55f—0.1%—56Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 56 57f—0.1%—≥58Flowest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 58forhigher—0.1%—62Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 62 63f—0.2%—64Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 64 65f—0.2%—66Fyouhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 66 67f—0.7%—68Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 68 69f—2.9%—70Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 70 71f—16.0%—72Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 72 73f—54.0%—74Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 74 75f—22.0%—76Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 76 77f—2.1%—78Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 78 79f—0.6%—≥80Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 80forhigher—0.2%—