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Market inspector · munich · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 20.6C to 21.4C (+0.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤12Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 12corbelow—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 13c—0.1%—14Cyouhighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 15c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 16c—0.2%—17Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 17c—0.5%—18Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 18c—4.6%—19Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 19c—58.0%—20Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 20c—42.0%—21Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 21c—2.8%—≥22Chighest temperature in munich on april 27 2026 22corhigher—1.2%—