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Market inspector · kuala-lumpur · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 2?
μ blend33.54C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.97combined uncertainty
source spread±0.87Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.1hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 33.536C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
96 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 96 snapshots; drift from 33.5C to 34.4C (+0.9C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤26Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 26corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp27Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 27c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp28Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 28c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp29Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 29c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp30Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 30c0.4%0.1%+0.3pp31Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 31c5.2%0.1%+5.1pp32Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 32c23.4%0.1%+23.3pp33Cyouhighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 33c39.4%0.1%+39.3pp34Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 34c25.1%0.1%+25.0pp35Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 35c6.0%——≥36Chighest temperature in kuala lumpur on may 2 2026 36corhigher0.5%0.1%+0.4pp