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Market inspector · amsterdam · 2026-04-29
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
98 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 98 snapshots; drift from 19.4C to 15.6C (-3.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤13Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 13corbelow—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 15c—0.2%—16Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 16c—0.5%—17Cyouhighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 17c—42.0%—18Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 18c—62.0%—19Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 19c—16.0%—20Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 20c—1.0%—21Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 21c—0.5%—22Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 22c—0.5%—≥23Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 29 2026 23corhigher—0.5%—