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Market inspector · houston · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on May 2?
μ blend72.58F104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.84combined uncertainty
source spread±5.22Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 72.584F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
94 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 94 snapshots; drift from 73.2F to 75.3F (+2.1F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤69Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 69forbelow2.6%0.5%+2.1pp70Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 70 71f11.5%4.6%+6.9pp72Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 72 73f21.4%33.0%-11.6pp74Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 74 75f12.6%47.0%-34.4pp76Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 76 77f2.4%23.0%-20.6pp78Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 78 79f0.1%7.1%-7.0pp80Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 80 81f0.0%1.5%-1.5pp82Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 82 83f0.0%1.0%-1.0pp84Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 84 85f0.0%0.6%-0.6pp86Fhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 86 87f0.0%0.5%-0.5pp≥88Fyouhighest temperature in houston on may 2 2026 88forhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp