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Market inspector · beijing · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 2?
μ blend22.38C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.42combined uncertainty
source spread±1.20Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.3hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.38C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
94 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 94 snapshots; drift from 22.8C to 22.9C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤21Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 21corbelow16.5%0.1%+16.4pp22Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 22c27.5%0.1%+27.4pp23Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 23c20.4%0.1%+20.3pp24Cyouhighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 24c9.4%——25Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 25c2.7%0.1%+2.6pp26Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 26c0.5%0.1%+0.4pp27Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 27c0.1%0.1%-0.1pp28Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 28c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp29Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 29c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp30Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 30c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≥31Chighest temperature in beijing on may 2 2026 31corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp