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Market inspector · seattle · 2026-04-29
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
99 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 99 snapshots; drift from 66.7F to 64.7F (-2.0F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤53Fyouhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 53forbelow—0.6%—54Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 54 55f—0.4%—56Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 56 57f—0.3%—58Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 58 59f—0.2%—60Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 60 61f—1.5%—62Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 62 63f—7.0%—64Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 64 65f—38.0%—66Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 66 67f—41.0%—68Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 68 69f—12.0%—70Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 70 71f—1.6%—≥72Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 29 2026 72forhigher—0.8%—