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Market inspector · sao-paulo · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 3?
μ blend20.56C296 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.83combined uncertainty
source spread±1.28Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour00:00 ±6.2hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 20.56C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
72 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 72 snapshots; drift from 20.7C to 20.8C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 14corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp15Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 15c0.0%0.6%-0.6pp16Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 16c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp17Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 17c0.1%1.0%-0.9pp18Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 18c2.9%4.0%-1.1pp19Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 19c22.0%6.0%+16.0pp20Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 20c45.3%26.0%+19.3pp21Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 21c25.7%37.0%-11.3pp22Cyouhighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 22c4.0%31.0%-27.0pp23Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 23c0.2%10.4%-10.2pp≥24Chighest temperature in sao paulo on may 3 2026 24corhigher0.0%2.0%-2.0pp