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Market inspector · mexico-city · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 2?
μ blend27.67C112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.16combined uncertainty
source spread±1.37Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±0.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 27.673C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 24.9C to 25.8C (+1.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤19Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 19corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp20Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 20c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp21Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 21c0.0%0.3%-0.3pp22Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 22c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp23Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 23c0.1%0.1%-0.0pp24Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 24c1.0%0.1%+0.9pp25Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 25c6.3%0.4%+5.9pp26Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 26c20.6%0.4%+20.2pp27Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 27c33.1%1.7%+31.4pp28Cyouhighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 28c26.3%11.0%+15.3pp≥29Chighest temperature in mexico city on may 2 2026 29corhigher12.6%92.0%-79.4pp