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Market inspector · shanghai · 2026-04-28
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 21.1C to 22.1C (+0.9C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 14corbelow—0.1%—≤7Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 7corbelow—0.1%—8Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 8c—0.1%—9Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 9c—0.7%—10Cyoulowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 10c—1.0%—11Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 11c—12.6%—12Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 12c—50.0%—13Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 13c—36.0%—14Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 15c—0.1%—15Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 15c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 16c—0.1%—16Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 17c—0.1%—≥17Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 17corhigher—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 20c—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 21c—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 22c———23Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 23c—0.2%—≥24Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 28 2026 24corhigher—0.2%—