00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:49CEST
live
Market inspector · jakarta · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 31.2C to 32.2C (+1.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤27Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 27corbelow—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 28c—0.1%—29Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 29c—0.1%—30Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 30c—0.1%—31Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 31c—0.1%—32Cyouhighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 32c—0.1%—33Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 33c—0.1%—34Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 34c—0.1%—35Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 35c—99.7%—36Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 36c—0.4%—≥37Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 1 2026 37corhigher—0.2%—