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Market inspector · chicago · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
85 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 85 snapshots; drift from 72.1F to 71.4F (-0.8F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤53Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 53forbelow—0.1%—54Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 54 55f—0.1%—56Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 56 57f—0.1%—58Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 58 59f—0.7%—60Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 60 61f—0.7%—62Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 62 63f—5.9%—64Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 64 65f—26.8%—66Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 66 67f—29.0%—68Fyouhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 68 69f—33.0%—70Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 70 71f—6.9%—≥72Fhighest temperature in chicago on april 27 2026 72forhigher—3.0%—