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Market inspector · ankara · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 14.0C to 15.8C (+1.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤11Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 11corbelow—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 12c—0.1%—13Cyouhighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 13c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 15c—94.0%—16Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 16c—13.0%—17Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 17c—0.9%—18Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 18c—1.0%—19Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 19c—0.5%—20Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 20c—0.2%—≥21Chighest temperature in ankara on may 1 2026 21corhigher—0.2%—