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Market inspector · tokyo · 2026-04-28
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 22.4C to 23.8C (+1.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤15Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 15corbelow—0.1%—≤10Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 10corbelow—0.5%—11Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 11c—0.5%—12Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 12c—0.3%—13Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 13c—99.9%—14Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 14c—0.1%—15Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 15c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 16c—0.1%—16Cyoulowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 17c—0.1%—17Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 18c—0.1%—18Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 19c—0.1%—19Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 20c—0.1%—≥20Clowest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 20corhigher—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 21c—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 22c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 23c—99.9%—24Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 24c—0.2%—≥25Chighest temperature in tokyo on april 28 2026 25corhigher—0.1%—