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Market inspector · shanghai · 2026-04-23
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on April 23?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
0 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleNot enough ensemble history yet for a trajectory chart (need ≥2 points).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤8Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 8corbelow—0.1%—≤7Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 7corbelow—0.1%—8Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 8c—0.3%—9Cyouhighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 9c—0.1%—9Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 9c—0.1%—10Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 10c—0.1%—10Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 10c—0.2%—11Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 11c—0.2%—11Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 11c—0.2%—12Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 12c—0.2%—12Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 12c—2.2%—13Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 13c—0.5%—13Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 13c—98.0%—14Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 14c—0.1%—14Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 14c—28.0%—15Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 15c—0.1%—15Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 15c—4.6%—16Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 16c—99.9%—16Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 16c—1.0%—17Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 17c—0.8%—≥17Clowest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 17corhigher—0.5%—≥18Chighest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 18corhigher—0.1%—