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Market inspector · toronto · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 2?
μ blend7.72C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.92combined uncertainty
source spread±0.55Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 7.717C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
96 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 96 snapshots; drift from 8.4C to 8.2C (-0.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤4Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 4corbelow0.0%0.5%-0.5pp5Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 5c3.0%0.5%+2.5pp6Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 6c18.7%0.9%+17.8pp7Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 7c40.2%11.0%+29.2pp8Cyouhighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 8c29.7%45.0%-15.3pp9Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 9c7.6%40.0%-32.4pp10Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 10c0.7%16.0%-15.3pp11Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 11c0.0%3.1%-3.1pp12Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 12c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp13Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 13c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp≥14Chighest temperature in toronto on may 2 2026 14corhigher0.0%0.4%-0.4pp