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OVERVIEW
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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-04-26
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
53 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 53 snapshots; drift from 26.9C to 26.7C (-0.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤20Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 20corbelow—0.1%—≤17Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 17corbelow—0.4%—18Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 18c—0.6%—19Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 19c—0.6%—20Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 20c—0.6%—21Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 21c—0.1%—21Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 21c—1.0%—22Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 22c—0.1%—22Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 22c—98.7%—23Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 23c—0.1%—23Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 23c—1.0%—24Cyouhighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 24c—0.2%—24Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 24c—0.9%—25Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 25c—0.2%—25Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 25c—0.4%—26Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 26c—0.2%—26Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 26c—1.4%—27Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 27c—0.2%—≥27Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 27corhigher—0.6%—28Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 28c—99.8%—29Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 29c—0.5%—≥30Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 26 2026 30corhigher—0.1%—