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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-05-03
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or higher on May 3?
μ blend28.30C207 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.73combined uncertainty
source spread±1.01Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.8hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 28.295C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
75 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 75 snapshots; drift from 29.4C to 29.8C (+0.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤15Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 15corbelow0.0%0.4%-0.4pp≤21Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 21corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp16Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 16c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp17Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 17c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp18Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 18c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp19Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 19c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp20Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 20c0.0%4.9%-4.9pp21Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 21c0.0%10.9%-10.9pp22Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 22c0.0%24.0%-24.0pp22Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 22c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp23Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 23c0.0%43.0%-43.0pp23Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 23c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp24Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 24c0.0%34.0%-34.0pp24Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 24c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp≥25Cyoulowest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 25corhigher100.0%0.4%+99.6pp25Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 25c0.1%0.5%-0.4pp26Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 26c3.8%1.8%+2.0pp27Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 27c30.5%22.8%+7.7pp28Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 28c48.8%47.0%+1.8pp29Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 29c15.8%33.0%-17.2pp30Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 30c1.0%6.0%-5.0pp≥31Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 3 2026 31corhigher0.0%1.5%-1.5pp