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Market inspector · manila · 2026-04-25
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on April 25?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
17 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 17 snapshots; drift from 35.2C to 35.3C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤30Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 30corbelow—0.1%—31Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 31c—0.1%—32Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 32c—0.1%—33Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 33c—1.9%—34Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 34c—0.1%—35Cyouhighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 35c—0.1%—36Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 36c—99.8%—37Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 37c—0.2%—38Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 38c—0.1%—39Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 39c—0.1%—≥40Chighest temperature in manila on april 25 2026 40corhigher—0.1%—