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Market inspector · chengdu · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 28.0C to 18.0C (-10.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 17corbelow—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 19c—99.7%—20Cyouhighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 20c—0.6%—21Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 21c—0.2%—22Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 22c—0.2%—23Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 23c—0.2%—24Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 24c—0.2%—25Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 25c—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 26c—0.2%—≥27Chighest temperature in chengdu on april 28 2026 27corhigher—0.1%—