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Market inspector · singapore · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
90 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 90 snapshots; drift from 32.7C to 31.5C (-1.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤25Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 25corbelow—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 26c—0.1%—27Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 27c—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 28c—0.1%—29Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 29c—0.1%—30Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 30c—0.1%—31Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 31c———32Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 32c—0.1%—33Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 33c—0.1%—34Chighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 34c—0.1%—≥35Cyouhighest temperature in singapore on may 1 2026 35corhigher—0.1%—