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Market inspector · amsterdam · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
91 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 91 snapshots; drift from 17.4C to 14.8C (-2.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤11Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 11corbelow—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 12c—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 13c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 14c—0.4%—15Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 15c—1.0%—16Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 16c—18.0%—17Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 17c—68.0%—18Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 18c—41.0%—19Cyouhighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 19c—2.0%—20Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 20c—0.5%—≥21Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 28 2026 21corhigher—0.7%—