00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:52CEST
live
Market inspector · amsterdam · 2026-04-30
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
67 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 67 snapshots; drift from 16.7C to 17.2C (+0.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤13Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 13corbelow—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 15c—0.1%—16Cyouhighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 17c—0.2%—18Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 18c—1.8%—19Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 19c—14.0%—20Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 20c—68.0%—21Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 21c—25.0%—22Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 22c—2.2%—≥23Chighest temperature in amsterdam on april 30 2026 23corhigher—0.4%—