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Market inspector · nyc · 2026-05-01
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 62.4F to 64.9F (+2.5F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤53Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 53forbelow—0.1%—≤37Fyoulowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 37forbelow—0.6%—38Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 38 39f—0.7%—40Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 40 41f—0.5%—42Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 42 43f—0.5%—44Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 44 45f—1.0%—46Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 46 47f—21.0%—48Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 48 49f—94.0%—50Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 50 51f—0.1%—52Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 52 53f—0.1%—54Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 54 55f—0.2%—54Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 54 55f—0.1%—56Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 56 57f—0.2%—≥56Flowest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 56forhigher—0.1%—58Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 58 59f—0.6%—60Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 60 61f—6.0%—62Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 62 63f—35.0%—64Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 64 65f—50.8%—66Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 66 67f—11.4%—68Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 68 69f—1.2%—70Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 70 71f—0.4%—≥72Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 1 2026 72forhigher—0.3%—