00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:48CEST
live
Market inspector · moscow · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 2?
μ blend12.90C84 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.94combined uncertainty
source spread±1.04Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±1.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 12.905C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
96 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 96 snapshots; drift from 12.8C to 12.1C (-0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤9Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 9corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp10Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 10c2.1%0.1%+1.9pp11Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 11c14.7%0.1%+14.6pp12Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 12c37.2%0.1%+37.1pp13Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 13c33.7%17.0%+16.7pp14Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 14c10.9%53.0%-42.1pp15Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 15c1.3%43.1%-41.9pp16Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 16c0.1%7.0%-7.0pp17Cyouhighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 17c0.0%0.8%-0.8pp18Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 18c0.0%0.5%-0.5pp≥19Chighest temperature in moscow on may 2 2026 19corhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp