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Market inspector · los-angeles · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
87 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 87 snapshots; drift from 63.6F to 62.9F (-0.7F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤55Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 55forbelow—0.1%—56Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 56 57f—0.1%—58Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 58 59f—0.1%—60Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 60 61f—0.5%—62Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 62 63f—7.0%—64Fyouhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 64 65f—42.0%—66Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 66 67f—47.0%—68Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 68 69f—9.7%—70Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 70 71f—1.0%—72Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 72 73f—0.7%—≥74Fhighest temperature in los angeles on april 27 2026 74forhigher—0.6%—