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Market inspector · buenos-aires · 2026-04-30
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 30?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
72 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 72 snapshots; drift from 21.2C to 21.1C (-0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 17corbelow—0.2%—18Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 18c—0.3%—19Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 19c—0.4%—20Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 20c—0.8%—21Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 21c—3.0%—22Cyouhighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 22c—5.8%—23Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 23c—39.0%—24Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 24c—37.0%—25Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 25c—14.0%—26Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 26c—1.6%—≥27Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 30 2026 27corhigher—0.7%—