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Market inspector · nyc · 2026-04-26
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
53 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 53 snapshots; drift from 52.4F to 55.3F (+2.8F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤35Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 35forbelow—0.4%—≤49Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 49forbelow—3.0%—36Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 36 37f—0.7%—38Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 38 39f—0.9%—40Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 40 41f—12.0%—42Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 42 43f—94.0%—44Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 44 45f—0.1%—46Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 46 47f—0.1%—48Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 48 49f—0.1%—50Fyoulowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 50 51f—0.1%—50Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 50 51f—6.0%—52Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 52 53f—0.1%—52Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 52 53f—15.0%—≥54Flowest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 54forhigher—0.1%—54Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 54 55f—29.0%—56Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 56 57f—38.0%—58Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 58 59f—16.1%—60Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 60 61f—2.0%—62Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 62 63f—0.6%—64Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 64 65f—0.3%—66Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 66 67f—0.2%—≥68Fhighest temperature in nyc on april 26 2026 68forhigher—0.3%—