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Market inspector · seoul · 2026-04-25
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 25?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
17 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 17 snapshots; drift from 18.3C to 18.6C (+0.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤8Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 8corbelow—0.9%—≤11Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 11corbelow—0.1%—9Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 9c—99.6%—10Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 10c—0.1%—11Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 11c—0.1%—12Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 12c—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 12c—0.1%—13Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 13c—0.1%—13Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 13c—0.1%—14Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 14c—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 14c—0.1%—15Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 15c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 15c—0.1%—16Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 16c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 16c—0.1%—17Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 17c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 17c—0.1%—≥18Clowest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 18corhigher—0.1%—18Cyouhighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 20c—99.9%—≥21Chighest temperature in seoul on april 25 2026 21corhigher—1.0%—