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Market inspector · austin · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 89.9F to 87.0F (-2.9F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤73Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 73forbelow—0.1%—74Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 74 75f—0.1%—76Fyouhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 76 77f—0.1%—78Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 78 79f—0.6%—80Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 80 81f—0.2%—82Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 82 83f—0.4%—84Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 84 85f—0.5%—86Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 86 87f—3.2%—88Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 88 89f—18.9%—90Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 90 91f—52.0%—≥92Fhighest temperature in austin on april 27 2026 92forhigher—30.0%—