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Market inspector · denver · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 54.9F to 56.7F (+1.8F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤41Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 41forbelow—0.1%—42Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 42 43f—0.1%—44Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 44 45f—0.5%—46Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 46 47f—0.5%—48Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 48 49f—2.9%—50Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 50 51f—20.8%—52Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 52 53f—29.0%—54Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 54 55f—36.0%—56Fyouhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 56 57f—9.0%—58Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 58 59f—5.1%—≥60Fhighest temperature in denver on april 27 2026 60forhigher—4.1%—