00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live01:03CEST
live
Market inspector · buenos-aires · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 17.1C to 18.6C (+1.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤8Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 8corbelow—0.1%—9Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 9c—0.3%—10Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 10c—0.1%—11Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 11c—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 12c—0.5%—13Cyouhighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 13c—0.5%—14Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 14c—1.1%—15Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 15c—9.0%—16Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 16c—38.0%—17Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 17c—41.0%—≥18Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 27 2026 18corhigher—14.0%—