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Market inspector · london · 2026-05-04
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 4?
μ blend16.58C207 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.84combined uncertainty
source spread±1.29Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±3.4hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 16.576C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
34 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 34 snapshots; drift from 18.3C to 17.5C (-0.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤5Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 5corbelow0.0%0.8%-0.8pp≤12Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 12corbelow0.7%0.1%+0.5pp6Cyoulowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 6c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp7Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 7c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp8Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 8c0.0%5.0%-5.0pp9Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 9c0.0%17.0%-17.0pp10Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 10c0.1%12.0%-11.9pp11Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 11c0.5%50.0%-49.5pp12Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 12c2.0%30.0%-28.0pp13Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 13c5.5%50.0%-44.5pp13Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 13c5.5%0.9%+4.6pp14Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 14c11.5%11.9%-0.4pp14Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 14c11.5%1.4%+10.1pp≥15Clowest temperature in london on may 4 2026 15corhigher80.4%1.0%+79.4pp15Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 15c18.1%3.0%+15.1pp16Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 16c21.4%18.0%+3.4pp17Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 17c18.9%28.0%-9.1pp18Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 18c12.6%30.0%-17.4pp19Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 19c6.3%12.0%-5.8pp20Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 20c2.3%7.9%-5.6pp21Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 21c0.7%2.0%-1.4pp≥22Chighest temperature in london on may 4 2026 22corhigher0.2%0.3%-0.1pp