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Market inspector · austin · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 2?
μ blend71.81F104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.55combined uncertainty
source spread±5.97Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 71.811F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
95 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 95 snapshots; drift from 71.1F to 73.4F (+2.3F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤55Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 55forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp56Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 56 57f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp58Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 58 59f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp60Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 60 61f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp62Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 62 63f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp64Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 64 65f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp66Fyouhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 66 67f0.1%0.1%-0.0pp68Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 68 69f2.8%0.5%+2.3pp70Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 70 71f17.9%5.8%+12.1pp72Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 72 73f23.0%22.0%+1.0pp≥74Fhighest temperature in austin on may 2 2026 74forhigher7.8%78.0%-70.2pp