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Market inspector · buenos-aires · 2026-04-26
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 26?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
54 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 54 snapshots; drift from 21.1C to 20.1C (-1.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤10Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 10corbelow—0.2%—11Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 11c—0.1%—12Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 12c—0.3%—13Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 13c—0.6%—14Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 14c—0.7%—15Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 15c—6.1%—16Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 16c—37.0%—17Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 17c—39.0%—18Cyouhighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 18c—14.0%—19Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 19c—3.5%—≥20Chighest temperature in buenos aires on april 26 2026 20corhigher—1.9%—