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Market inspector · warsaw · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 2?
μ blend23.61C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.90combined uncertainty
source spread±0.91Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 23.606C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
95 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 95 snapshots; drift from 21.4C to 22.5C (+1.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤18Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 18corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp19Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 19c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp20Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 20c0.2%0.1%+0.1pp21Cyouhighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 21c3.5%0.2%+3.3pp22Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 22c21.3%0.2%+21.1pp23Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 23c41.9%0.7%+41.2pp24Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 24c27.0%15.0%+12.0pp25Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 25c5.7%63.0%-57.3pp26Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 26c0.4%22.0%-21.6pp27Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 27c0.0%1.5%-1.5pp≥28Chighest temperature in warsaw on may 2 2026 28corhigher0.0%0.5%-0.5pp