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Market inspector · paris · 2026-04-27
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 23.0C to 23.9C (+0.9C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤4Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 4corbelow—0.4%—≤16Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 16corbelow—0.3%—5Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 5c—0.5%—6Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 6c—0.9%—7Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 7c—0.6%—8Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 8c———9Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 9c—33.0%—10Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 10c—0.9%—11Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 11c—0.1%—12Cyoulowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 12c—0.1%—13Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 13c—0.1%—≥14Clowest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 14corhigher—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 17c—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 19c—0.4%—20Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 20c—3.4%—21Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 21c—34.0%—22Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 22c—55.0%—23Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 23c—15.0%—24Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 24c—3.6%—25Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 25c—0.6%—≥26Chighest temperature in paris on april 27 2026 26corhigher—0.2%—