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Market inspector · cape-town · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 2?
μ blend16.67C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.59combined uncertainty
source spread±0.38Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±3.2hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 16.672C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
96 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 96 snapshots; drift from 18.3C to 17.0C (-1.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤15Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 15corbelow0.2%0.1%+0.1pp16Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 16c58.1%9.9%+48.2pp17Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 17c27.8%32.7%-4.9pp18Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 18c1.3%67.0%-65.7pp19Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 19c0.0%11.0%-11.0pp20Cyouhighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 20c0.0%0.8%-0.8pp21Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 21c0.0%0.8%-0.8pp22Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 22c0.0%0.6%-0.6pp23Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 23c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp24Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 24c0.0%0.5%-0.5pp≥25Chighest temperature in cape town on may 2 2026 25corhigher0.0%0.5%-0.5pp